20/03/15At least you can predict an Eclipse!
Well the eclipse came and went and it was predicted to the hour as to what would happen….If only life were that simple!
I just wanted to share my thoughts (with the help of some financial analysts) on the financial markets. Now, as you know I can’t predict the market and let’s face it, if I could, would I be writing this blog? ‘Course not, someone would be doing it for me! But I can share my views and thoughts, which are mine…more or less, but please don’t take this as gospel, as this is nothing like predicting an eclipse.
So…where are we? Well, believe it or not, we are in a pretty good place. We have seen a fantastic run on US Equities and there appears to be no stopping it’s growth, with S&P 500 Index, expected to show another double digit growth return this year. The UK’s retail sales were up 5.5% year on year (although not high enough to raise inflation) and the far east, particularly Asia Pacific, continues to grow and more unexpectedly than ever, the UK bond market defied all analysts predictions and delivered another fantastic growth performance.
After all this good news, there has to be some bad, right? Well…..we obviously have terrorism, but we have in general, been dealing well with that since 9/11, however, we need to be mindful of Mr Putin, Greece and the European Central Bank (ECB) as well elections here in the UK and USA.
At this point, speculation takes over: A Greek exit (or Grexit, as it’s known) is not predicted, for that to me, would signal the demise of the Euro, every member state taking back it’s debt and chaos for years will ensue. Mr Draghi (Central Bank President), will continue I feel, to roll out Quantitative easing for the Eurozone to begin a large scale, asset purchase and hopefully, so will the Eurozone consumers. Germany is currently leading the way, with both food and non food sales volumes rising. I am also factoring in Mr Putin bows to worldwide pressure and removes Russia from the Ukraine conflict and that Oil prices stay moderately low, which undoubtedly help the growth continuation of China, India etc.
I genuinely don’t think I’m a million miles away here with my thoughts, although you may well disagree on some aspects! my core belief, is that a global strategy is required as well as a truly diverse investment portfolio.
Let’s see what happens and at least we won’t need a pinhole camera to do so.
