16/08/17Armageddon oughta here
‘The sharp eyed amongst you, would’ve recognised my blog title from ‘Bruce Almighty’ – Morgan Freeman, holds up this sign when dressed as a tramp, but in the film, he reveals himself as God….
Anyway, with summer well & truly upon us (yes folks, this is it!) & my shiny new website settled in, I thought it was high time I posted a blog.
My take on…. America/North Korea
So, the shoulder pushing, gesticulating, name calling Friday night bar brawl is nothing new – whether it’s Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis, Space race, Strategic Defensive Initiative (Reagans “Star Wars” project) we’ve read about it, seen the adverts, watched it & lived it, but the current brawl between Trump & Kim Jong-un is somewhat different it seems. Even my 21yr old daughter – whose interests normally stop after Instagram – has asked me whether I think we’re on the brink of a Nuclear War… My answer in the 80’s was no & my answer today is no. Different reasons.. In the 80’s ultimately two countries didn’t want world obliteration on their hands & this time around, we have a leader in North Korea who is a bully & if kills off everyone, then he has no one left to bully.. Trump is a different kettle of fish but even he will kowtow to his ‘specialists’
However, the tension will be felt by investment markets & we are & will continue to see market movements purely based on speeches and tones of speech as these two countries play out the locker room shenanigans…..
I am genuinely surprised by the constant disappointment that Brexit is not yet clear. As far as I am aware, no country has ever left the union so this is new to everyone & somewhere in a massive dust ladened manual, written in.. I dunno 1973…is some kind of answer. Even divorce cases can take months.. Years even, to sort out who gets the Yucca plant & how Spotify can be shared, so why the EU/UK can’t say “look, we’ve never done this before, so let’s try & work it out” is beyond me. It would settle everyone down & allow us to crack on with life & more importantly, it might bring down the cost of Marmite and ease traffic flow through airports. In the meantime, EU markets are making gains while we tread water for a bit.
The most dented, rusted & kicked about can in history. While Brexit trundles along, Greece keeps being kicked into the long grass with no real solution in place it seems & with Germany to go to the polls, there is real interest as to whether Merkel can secure yet another term of office. If she does, then the EU will breathe a bit easier but if she doesn’t…..
Add in the Middle East, Russia & China & we have a cacophony of noise, not particularly harmonious.
There is such a requirement to have a diverse range of investment strategies, ideally easily accessible so that you can be nimble should the need arise. With inflation at around 2% & cash interest rates at 0.1/0.3% short term & around 1% for a year, we all know that cash cannot be a viable long-term option. A possibility to borrow to buy property or invest exists, but it’s not for everyone & void periods of rent, blight in the specific area you bought property in has to be considered & of course, that investment can go down as well as up.
It is really important now, to understand how long you are investing & what you are saving for. Political risks are not the be all & end all, but does need to be recognised.
As always, I’m a ‘phone call away from meeting up with you.
Finally, for this summer in the uk.. Would you invest in ice cream & sunscreen or ice-cream & umbrellas….?
Have a great rest of summer & I’ll see you soon